‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات forex. إظهار كافة الرسائل
‏إظهار الرسائل ذات التسميات forex. إظهار كافة الرسائل

الأحد، 28 نوفمبر 2010

Forex Trading Secrets to Really Boost Your Profits

There is no doubt that forex robots are creating a big impact on the fx market. Due to the various benefits that these robots provide they are great news for a novice looking to trade forex but they can also offer real benefit to more advanced traders. So what is the secret to why these robots are proving to be so successful? These software applications are usually known as robots or expert advisors (EA). They do live up to their name since they are said to have helped in the $3 trillion market turnover everyday in the forex market.
Exactly what does a forex robot do and what are these advantages over the old method of trading? The expert advisor software analyzes the up to date information available and then indicates to the trader when to enter or exit he market. It is able to process the information a lot quicker than a human could.
Forex robots can be set by their owners to just alert them of trade opportunities, leaving the trader to actually execute the trade. Whats truly impressive is the forex robots capability to trade 100% without requiring human intervention if asked to. For greater flexibility the trader has the choice to keep the robot on its default setting or alternatively tailor the robots trading pattern by adjusting the settings.
These robots are sophisticated enough to actually buy and sell instead of just enter and exit the market.
An additional important feature of the best forex robots is their money management facility. The robot will systematically vary the size of each trade to avoid taking large risks and trying to maximize the return on investment with the element of caution. Of course the trader can alter these settings to meet their trading style.
The capacity to use stop losses if needed as well as alter them and remove them is an additional huge advantage that a forex robot posesses, allowing them to be very flexible and allowing each trader to tailor them accordingly.
If you have an online trading account already open then all you need is to buy the forex robot which you then install onto your current trading software. The EA would be downloaded to your computer and would make trades for you.
The expert advisor can literally trade 24 hours a day 5 days a week and allows you to get on with your life. So, there are some companies that offer virtual hosting where traders can continue trading while giving their computers and trading robot the needed rest.
Learn the basics involved in the forex market, take time to familiarize yourself with all of the features and settings of your forex robot and just monitor the progress as your robot trades.
Dan Jones has been a professional forex trader for the last 7 years and worked in London, New york and is currently based in Tokyo. He wants to help new forex traders avoid the common errors that are so costly when starting out to trade forex.

G20 Finance Ministers Gather In Gyeongju, South Korea

Ahead of the summit meeting of the heads of state of the group of 20 leading economies next month, this weekend sees a meeting of their finance ministers in Gyeongju, in South Korea

Trend following

Trend following is an investment strategy that tries to take advantage of long-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. The strategy aims to work on the market trend mechanism and take benefit from both sides of the market, enjoying the profits from the ups and downs of the stock or futures markets. Traders who use this approach can use current market price calculation, moving averages and channel breakouts to determine the general direction of the market and to generate trade signals. Traders who employ a trend following strategy do not aim to forecast or predict specific price levels; they simply jump on the trend and ride it.

Contents

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  • 1 Definition
  • 2 Considerations
  • 3 Q&As
  • 4 Example
  • 5 Notes and references
  • 6 External links
  • 7 Further reading
  • 8 See also

Definition

This trading method involves a risk management component that uses three elements: number of shares held, the current market price, and current market volatility. An initial risk rule determines position size at time of entry. Exactly how much to buy or sell is based on the size of the trading account and the volatility of the issue. Changes in price may lead to a gradual reduction or an increase of the initial trade. On the other hand, adverse price movements may lead to an exit for the entire trade.
These traders normally enter in the market after the trend properly establishes itself, and, for this reason, they ignore the initial turning point profit.
If there is a turn contrary to the trend, these systems signal a pre-programmed exit or wait until the turn establishes itself as a trend in the opposite direction. In case the system signals an exit, the trader re-enters when the trend re-establishes.
In the words of Tom Basso, in the book Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom
Let’s break down the term Trend Following into its components. The first part is “trend”. Every trader needs a trend to make money. If you think about it, no matter what the technique, if there is not a trend after you buy, then you will not be able to sell at higher prices…”Following” is the next part of the term. We use this word because trend followers always wait for the trend to shift first, then “follow” it.

Considerations

  • Price: One of the first rules of trend following is that price is the main concern. Traders may use other indicators showing where price may go next or what it should be but as a general rule these should be disregarded. A trader need only be worried about what the market is doing, not what the market might do. The current price and only the price tells you what the market is doing.
  • Money management: Another decisive factor of trend following is not the timing of the trade or the indicator, but rather the decision of how much to trade over the course of the trend.
  • Risk control: Cut losses is the rule. This means that during periods of higher market volatility, the trading size is reduced. During losing periods, positions are reduced and trade size is cut back. The main objective is to preserve capital until more positive price trends reappear.
  • Rules: Trend following should be systematic. Price and time are pivotal at all times. This technique is not based on an analysis of fundamental supply and demand factors.

Q&As

The trend following strategy answers the questions:
  • How and when to enter the market.
  • How many contracts or shares to trade at any time.
  • How much money to risk on each trade.
  • How to exit the trade if it becomes unprofitable.
  • How to exit the trade if it becomes profitable.

Example

A trader would identify a security to trade (currencies/commodities/financials) and would come up with a preliminary strategy, such as:
  • Commodity: soybean oil
  • Trading approach: long and short alternatively.
  • Entrance: When the 50 period simple moving average (SMA) crosses over the 100 period SMA, go long when the market opens. The crossover suggests that the trend has recently turned up.
  • Exit: Exit long and go short the next day when 100 period SMA crosses over 50 period SMA. The crossover suggests that the trend has turned down.
  • Stop loss: Set a stop loss based on maximum loss acceptable. For example if the recent, say 10 day, Average True Range is 0.5% of current market price, stop loss could be set at 4×0.5% = 2%.
The trader would then backtest the strategy, using actual data and would evaluate the strategy. The simulator would generate estimated number of trades, the fraction of winning/losing trades, average profit/loss, average holding time, maximum drawdown, and the overall profit/loss. The trader can then experiment and refine the strategy. Care must be taken, however, to avoid over-optimization.
It is possible that a majority of the trades may be unprofitable, but by “cutting the losses” and “letting profits run”, the overall strategy may be profitable. Trend trading is most effective for a market that is quiet (relative low volatility) and trending. For this reason, trend traders often focus on commodities, which show a stronger tendency to trend than on stocks, which are more likely to be mean reverting (which favors swing traders).

News Merkel Wants A Permanent EU Bailout Facility

Rumours continue to persist that suggest that the Eurozone may be forced into some form of break-up. However, rather like mixing yellow and red paint to get an orange colour, the reality is it would be almost impossible to undo this integration.
Apart from the logistics of a nation having to re-create its own currency (printing, distribution, minting new coinage, etc), the goal would be to covert Euro debt into “new national currency” denominated debt and let the new currency devalue.
Effectively, this would represent a debt default (since creditors would only get a fraction of the Euro worth of their original investment) and would make future borrowing prohibitively expensive. Imagine, for a moment, how Ireland would fare in the bond markets if trying to meet its current obligations outside of the Euro – yields would be astronomical.
Furthermore, citizens of the exiting nation would know that the value represented by their Euro savings was about to be slashed and there would be a flight of capital before the transition could take place. In short, the Euro and the Eurozone membership is set to stay.
Angela Merkel has stated that she wants to see a permanent EU bailout facility established which would remain in place once the existing provisions expire in 2013. The position is endorsed by French President, Nikolas Sarkozy, and would be designed to reassure investors that the Eurozone block is committed to ensuring a strong and stable Euro over the longer term.
It is clear that regulation and monitoring of compliance with the EU convergence criteria will be strengthened going forward once the immediate consequences of the global financial crisis have settled. All Eurozone members and other nations in the wider EU will need to ensure that public sector borrowing remains in control.

Best Forex

Forex Strategy H4 Fibonacci Method – multi-currency, trend forex strategy, trading on the time interval H4, additional indicators – 2 moving averages, indicator RSI, the main tool – Fibonacci (Fibonacci levels).
As some professional traders say: “Fibonacci – the only “indicator”, which predicts the reversal points of a trend  in the financial markets. This can be your personal Best Forex System!
That is why the Fibonacci tool is so popular in forex trading, and in all financial markets – it is indeed one of the best tools that can predict a trend reversal point (or a temporary rebound), so it helps the majority of traders to profit using this indicator skillfully in the forex market.
Let’s look at forex strategy, in which the Fibonacci play quite a role. So to trade forex strategy H4 Fibonacci Method, must be installed on the chosen currency pair (which, again, can be any), the following forex indicators:
  1. Daily chart (D1) –  Relative Strength Index Oscillator with a period of 14 to apply to close (RSI (14)), as well as add a level of 50
  2. H4 chart – Exponential Moving Average EMA (100), applied to a close – the color green
  3. H4 chart - simple moving average SMA (150), applied to a close – the color red
And also we need a tool Fibonacci levels 0.382, 0.618, 0.236 and 0.764.
Go long if:
H4 Fibonacci Method Forex Strategy   H4 Fibonacci Method

  1. RSI (14) on the daily chart was closed and is located above the level 50 – trade only in this direction! Shorts does not conclude!
  2. Green Moving Average EMA (100) crossed the red moving average, SMA (150) from the bottom up – will trade only in this direction!
  3. Find the two closest extremum – minimum and maximum distance between them is at least 100 points. And no matter where the trend between the extremes – up or down.
  4. Stretch Fibonacci according to the extrema.
  5. We wait until the price comes to a range between the Fibonacci levels 38.2% and 61.8%.
  6. And then waiting for the price out of these levels and closes the first candle (candle complete – including the tail) above the level of 76,4% (if we stretched the Fibonacci down – corrective movement to the rising trend), or 23,6% (if we Fibonacci stretched from the bottom up – the direction of travel of the upward trend).
  7. Stop-loss set at least at the level of 100 points, or under the nearest local minimum.
  8. Profit target set at a distance of 161.8% of the extended Fibonacci sequence by which you have entered the market. If desired, you can use the trailing stop or close the deal at a distance of 261.8%, etc.
H4 Fibonacci Method 1 Forex Strategy   H4 Fibonacci Method
To go short – vice versa.

Forex Strategy


Forex Strategy-1 trade a day – another break-out strategy for forex transactions which are only 1 deal per day – at the closing and the breakdown of the Asian session, and trade is conducted only on currency pairs, associated with British Pound – GBP (gbpusd, gbpjpy, gbpaud, gbpcad, gbpchf, etc.), because following the Asian session opens session in London.
1. For trade strategy “1 Trade a Day”, we need to install on the chart of the chosen currency pair the indicator ant-GUBreakout_V.0.4.2.ex4 – it will be for us to indicate the beginning and end of the Asian session, the parameters of the indicator as follow:
  • GMTShift – time shift your DC from GMT (for example Alpari – “1″)
  • Start – the start time “box” (0:00)
  • End – End Time “box” (8:59)
  • Offset – the indentation from the box to be placed orders 5-10 points
2. And as for trade, we need a tool Metatrader 4 – lines (levels) Fibonacci with the levels (0, 50% and 100%).
The strategy forex “1 trade a day” as follows:
1. We await, when the box closes  ”Asian session” and stretc Fibonacci so that the level of 0 and 50% were on the extremes of the formed box.
2. Fibonacci build in 2 opposite sides, look at the example below:
1 trade a day Forex strategy “1 Trade a Day”. Level of 100% will indicate to us our profit target.
4. After closing the box, set 1 order on each side of the box – to buy and to sell, with orders Buy Stop and Sell Stop set at a distance of 5-10 points of maximum and minimum of the resulting box.
5. Stop-loss orders are putting on the opposite side of the box.
6. If an order is opened, the second immediately remove, because trade is only 1 time a day!
Addition to the strategy:
1. Warrant closing the only stop-loss or take-profit – no matter how many days will be an open position!
2. As long as the open order for this strategy is not closed, the following order was not placed!
3. Also there is the option of their choice:
a) if the order is not closed at the end of the trading day – at 00.00 GMT, then closes it at the current market price.
b) if the order is not closed at the end of the trading day – at 00.00 GMT, the translation of stop-loss level “zero” or a fractal, and look forward to the next position is closed by stop-loss or take-profit.
Optional:
1. Can optionally convert the position to breakeven with a trailing stop when reaching + 30% – 50% in profit on the size of the box.
2. You can make a restriction – do not trade if the box size was more than 120 points, as for such boxes is likely closing of the stop-loss, this stop-loss is too large!
To download the indicators, just write an e-mail through the contact form with a request of indicator you need.

السبت، 27 نوفمبر 2010

forex currency trading

forex currency trading

19 November 2010
FX Tools: AUD weakness and EURJPY outlook

John J. Hardy, FX Consultant, Saxo Bank

We’ve noticed a divergently weak Aussie since yesterday – possibly on the Chinese clampdown measures. What’s the evidence say about Aussie valuation? Also – which way EURJPY at big inflection point?





Aussie looks relatively fairly valued versus interest rate spreads and other indicators like the copper price and risk appetite in general. It is interesting to note that AUDUSD is tracking the emerging market equity markets far more closely than the US S&P500 (which has rallied more than EM equity indices.). It is also interesting that emerging market equities and gold are in very tight correlation and one wonders if there really is any asset diversification to be had. On a completely different note, with all asset classes so hyper-correlated, is there a better measure of something “real” that can tell us what is going on. One possibility: China electricity production, which is generally considered a better measure than the official GDP figures out of China, which are more likely to be created by decree. The latest data for October suggests that electricity production growth has slowed dramatically over the last few months – far more sharply than the official industrial production data, for example. See charts below.



Chart: China Electricity Production vs. Industrial Production
Note that Chinese Electricity Production actually dipped strongly into negative territory (almost -15% YoY), while Industrial Production supposedly never dipped below a growth rate of 5-6% a year. Creative accounting is a wonderful thing, isn’t it? It’s also what is keeping the largest US banks afloat and able to hand out huge bonuses even as the risk of eventual bankruptcy grows by the day. See this great article (sorry - full article is for paying WSJ subscribers) about the real reasons behind Bernanke’s QE2 move. In it, Mr. Kessler suggests that the risks of further problems in real estate are the main drive behind the Fed’s QE2 move and that everything else being said is just a cover to distract us from the systemic nature of the problem and avoid shaking confidence. Thanks to Mr. J for the link.